Monday, November 19, 2007

Why not to invest in Google

Google owns practically nothing.

Okay, okay, they do own some servers and building. But, other than that, what are their assets?

Google came on to the scene and dominated all other search engines overnight. There were many keys to Google's success, but perhaps none as important as the fact that it found the most relevant information.

Why hasn't Google's search gotten any better?

Why do I still need to structure my queries in pseudo-English in order to influence the search engine to find the information I want?

Why is Google not yet able to infer from my sentence and from the content it has found crawling what I want and where it is?

I supposed the answer is that these ideas are very very difficult to turn into reality.

But, not impossible.

There will be a day when a far more advanced search engine appears. On that day, google will have the world's brightest engineers and most advanced and efficient advertising/compensation systems in place, but no users. And if they have no users, then they clearly won't have any advertisers.

Because it's business is so dynamic and scalable, Google is incredible because it can come on the scene and grow into a huge company very, very rapidly.

But, beware, this also means that it can collapse overnight too. It only takes a bad month and a phone call for advertiser to start to abandon Google. Then what will they do?

Don't buy the hype, this is a company whose business model is so new to the market that it's relevant risk levels are not being valuated anywhere near accurately.

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